Epsom Oaks Series V

Andrew Fletcher brings us his final installment of his Epsom Oaks Series, and for his final article he takes a look at Godolphin’s Kailani.

My Oaks series concludes with a look at Godolphin’s sole representative in either of the Epsom classics, Kailani who is trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni.  She made her racecourse debut at Yarmouth in October when taking part in a Fillies’ Maiden over a mile. Having broken well from the stalls, she was settled towards the head of the field in second or third place. She lost her position with 2½f to go meaning she had to be switched by her jockey, but she found plenty under pressure and was perhaps pulling away towards the end of the race, winning by half a length. The filly in second was Shestheman who has subsequently been a winner of 9f maiden at Wolverhampton. The 4^th named Aniseed has been beaten 13l by The Fugue in the Musidora at York when finishing 5^th of six runners and the 6^th Salacia was beaten a length and a half when second to The Fugue in maiden at Newmarket in October.

Kailani reappeared in May at the Newmarket Guineas meeting in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over 10f. This time she was settled in rear, before being asked to move forward with half a mile left to run. She hit the front some 3f from home and drifted towards the far rail, once she had the rail she was pushed forwards under hands and heels and at the line she was well clear winning 7 lengths. It is worth noting that she threw her jockey off at the start this day, but it being only her second start, it can probably just be put down to inexperience. Back in second this day was Hazel Lavery, who had won a 7f conditions race at Newbury and was second to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Samitar in a valuable sales race at Newmarket in October (7f). The 3^rd Lacily has finished 5^th in an Oaks Trial at Newbury, beaten 8½ lengths by the second Shirocco Star, who is set to take her place in the Oaks. Finally the fourth Salford Art ran in the Musidora behind The Fugue, beaten 8½ lengths when finishing fourth.

Kailani has done little wrong on her two starts to date and showed she was genuine when overcoming adversity to win on debut and that she had ability, drawing well clear of her rivals at Newmarket. It is difficult to make a judgement on whether she would stay the extra two furlongs based on her racing career to date, but her pedigree may be able to assist us in making such a judgment.

Her dam is Kazzia, a triple Group 1 winner whose victories included the 1000 Guineas (8f), Oaks (12f) and the Flower Bowl Invitational (9f). She is a half-sister to Listed winner over a mile Kimbajar, by the German miler Royal Abjar and Chesapeake (Sadler’s Wells), a dual winner over fences. As a broodmare she has produced three winners including Kailani, the other two being Eastern Anthem, a Group 1 winner in the Dubai Sheema Classic (12f) and Zeitoper, a Group 3 winner over 9f inFrance. Both of these are by the four-time Group 1 winner at 10-12f, Singspiel whose victories included the Japan Cup (12f) and the Juddmonte International (10f). Kazzia has also produced a full sister to Kailani in Moonsail, who has been second in two maidens over a mile at two and was disappointing when last over 10f at Ripon on last start.

The damsire is Zinaad, who was a winner of the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes over 12f atNewmarket. He is by theDerbywinnerShirleyHeightsand is out an Oaks winner in Time Charter. He has only produced small numbers of runners but his best progeny include a Listed winner in Germany over 11f Mariella, a winner over 9f in Germany Red Diva and Wassiljew, who was a winner over 8f and 10f in France.

The sire of Kailani is a winner of three Group 1s over 12f in Germany, Monsun. Who at stud has become a sire associated with middle-distance performers. The best of these include Manduro, a triple Group 1 winner over distances from 10f to 12f. As well as Shirocco, a winner four Group 1s at a mile and a half including the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Coronation Cup. Perhaps the best of the fillies he has sired is Stacelita, whose six Group 1 wins at 10f+ include the Prix Vermeille (12f) and the Beverly D Stakes (10f).

Her pedigree seems to suggest that she will have no problem with the extra distance in the Oaks considering her dam won the Oaks, the damsire is by a Derby winner and out of an Oaks winner and the stamina influence her sire possesses. However, the way she won at Newmarket in the soft ground and given it was soft when her dam won the Oaks suggests she may perform best with cut in the ground. As was discussed yesterday with Kissed, this is something that would not be likely to be forthcoming despite the overnight rain at Epsom. She will also be stepping up markedly in class and this combined with the ground means I would be reluctant to side with her chances on Friday. However, she could prove better as the season goes on and I could see her campaigned in a similar way to last year’s 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting, also owned by Godolphin. She won the Irish Oaks and the Yorkshire when the ground wasn’t too quick and I suggest that similar conditions would suit Kailani better than those that will face her on Friday.

Overall Conclusion

As this is the final part of the series, I thought I would draw together some of the fillies that I have considered and perhaps try and come to a final conclusion. As well as those I have looked at in this series, I also analysed Maybe’s pedigree in my 1000 Guineasseries. There would have to be doubts about her staying given her dam was a winner over 5f, that said last year’s Oaks winner Dancing Rain is a close relative of her dam and Maybe appeared to get better the further she went at Newmarket. The same could be said of Was, as her dam won over 6f but she is a half-sister to the Derbywinner New Approach, however she would have to find massive improvement on her 3^rd in a Group 3 to be in the frame. Whilst improvement would not have to be as drastic, Kailani will need to step up to compete and her ability would have to back up the pedigree she possesses. The problem for Vow I feel will be inexperience and the greenness she was still showing on her second start, but she will stay as she has tackled the trip already and therefore could not be ruled out. The Fugue’s dam Twyla Tharp stayed 12f and Dansili put to a Sadler’s Wells mare has produced horses with stamina such as Father Time, who won the King Edward VII and therefore stamina should not be an issue. She was also very impressive atYork in the Musidora and would therefore be on many people’s shortlists. The final filly to mention is Kissed, who comes from the Galileo-Darshaan cross and the same family that produced last year’sDerby winner. Her pedigree appears to suit the Oaks perfectly and whilst her appearance is by no means guaranteed, she will definitely stay and has plenty of quality on both sides of the family. If she improves for her second run and copes with conditions I see her being right there at the end of the mile and a half on Friday.

 Follow Andrew on Twitter @ginge210!

Photo Credits

Photo 1 Kailani winning the Pretty Polly at Newmarket Source: sportinglife.co.uk

Photo 2 Kazzia winning the Oaks Source: godolphin.com

Photo 3 One of Monsun’s best fillies Stacelita Source: drf.com

Epsom Oaks Series IV

Andrew Fletcher is back with his fourth installment of his 2012 Epsom Oaks series, looking at the pedigree of the main contenders for the Epsom Oaks on Friday.  

As the Oaks approaches, I continue my series looking at the potential contenders for the race. This time I am looking at one of the six fillies that have been declared by Aidan O’Brien and her name is Kissed.

She started her racing career at Navan in October when she lined up for a Fillies Maiden over a mile. She was positioned towards the head of the field on leaving the stalls and travelled nicely in 3^rd position. She continued to travel well into the straight before being shaken along with 2f to go and asked to chase the leader. She was always getting on top in the final stages and started to pull away to win comfortably by 1½ lengths. The filly in second that day was Violet Lashes who is still a maiden following three subsequent starts and in fifth was Voleuse de Coeurs (2^nd fav), who was second in a Dundalk 11f maiden before winning over 12f at Wexford. Kissed was well fancied on debut, going off as 6/4 favourite but what was impressive was how relaxed she was and how she showed few signs of greenness on her first outing.

It was the end of April before she was seen again in the Listed Salsabil Stakes over 10f at Navan. This time she was asked to lead by her jockey Joseph O’Brien and set a good pace before turning the screw with about 3f to go. At this stage she was still on the bridle but in the final two furlongs she was gently pushed clear to win easily by 8½ lengths. In second was Aaraas, who had won a 6f maiden and was 3^rd behind Nephrite in the Killavullan Stakes (7f), since then she has finished 2^nd in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes ahead of Kissed’s stablemate Was. Back in 3^rd was Cleofila, who had won a 7f maiden at the Curragh and also ran in the Blue Wind finishing fourth.

It is probably not unfair to say that we have yet to see Kissed really stretched on the racecourse considering the ease with which she dispatched her first two sets of rivals. These performances showed that she is a quality filly but it also means that it is difficult to judge whether she will get the extra two furlongs in the Oaks and perhaps her pedigree will provide us with a better idea.

Kissed dam is an unraced mare Gwynn. She is a half sister to Fermoy, a dual winner over 10f, by Champion 2yo and Champion Miler in France, Irish River. She is also a half-sister to Highest Accolade, a winner of a 10f maiden by the Derby winner Shirley Heights. Gwynn has produced 4 winners to date including Kissed and all of them are products of the Sadler’s Wells male line. Rendezvous (Sadler’s Wells) was a winner over 8f at Chantilly beating Cirrus Des Aigles on debut. Gagnoa, another product of Sadler’s Wells was a dual Group 3 winner at 8f and 11f respectively and was also placed in three Group 1s including the Irish Oaks. Perhaps her best produce to date is a son of Montjeu called Pour Moi, who won the Group 2 Prix Greffuhle over 10f and the Epsom Derby last year before being retired to stud.

The damsire of Kissed is Darshaan, a winner of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud (10f) and the Prix du Jockey Club (12f) during his racing career. At stud he has produced 12 separate Group 1 winners and his progeny tend to run at distances of 7f and upwards. His best progeny include the 2000 Guineas and QEII winner Mark of Esteem as well as Kotashaan who won the Breeders’ Cup Turf over 12f. He also sired Dalakhani, who was only beaten once in nine starts and won four Group 1s including the Prix du Jockey Club and the Arc. As a damsire, his daughters have been very successful when crossed with stallions from the Sadler’s Wells male line. Products of this cross include High Chaparral (Sadler’s Wells) who won the Racing Post Trophy, Derby and Irish Champion Stakes. Others include Milan (Sadler’s Wells) winner of the Great Voltigeur and St Leger and Islington (Sadler’s Wells) who won the Nassau Stakes (10f) as well as being twice victorious in the Yorkshire Oaks (12f).

The sire of Kissed is a winner of the Derby, Irish Derby and King George in Galileo. He has been a massive success at stud having already sired 37 separate Group 1 winners and has been crowned Champion sire on three occasions (2008, 2010, 2011). His best produce include the highest rated horse in the world at present in Frankel, who is unbeaten in 10 starts having won races such as the 2000 Guineas, QEII and Lockinge Stakes. He has also sired Cape Blanco, a winner of five Group 1s including the Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and Arlington Million. When put to a Darshaan mare, Galileo has produced 41 winners from 59 runners. The best of which being Midas Touch who won the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (10f) as well as finishing second in the Irish Derby (12f), Great Voltigeur (12f) and St Leger (14f).

There is no doubt that Kissed is from a wonderful family and that combined with her conformation explains why Coolmore paid 900,000 Guineas for her at Tattersalls as a yearling. She has confirmed her ability in two starts to date but these have both come on soft ground which is not something that would be forthcoming at Epsom. This comment has been supported this morning with Ballydoyle suggesting Kissed will not run unless there is ease in the ground. I feel that the extra two furlongs will not prove a problem for her given her pedigree is packed with stamina and if she lines up at Epsom she must have a serious chance. However, if her entry at Epsom is withdrawn on account of the ground, she would probably still be worth keeping an eye on the Prix Diane (10.5f) or the Irish Oaks (12f) where she would be more likely to get ground on the softer side of good.

Back Kissed to win the Epsom Oaks with Ladbrokes at 6/1 using a £50 free bet using code FB50!

Missed Andrew’s first three installments? Read them here:

Epsom Oaks Series I – Was

Epsom Oaks Series II – The Fugue

Epsom Oaks Series III – Vow

 Follow Andrew on Twitter @ginge210!

Photo Credits

Photo 1 Kissed winning on her second outing racingpost.com

Photo 2 Last year’sDerbywinner Pour Moi is a half-brother to Kissed telegraph.co.uk

Photo 3 Midas Touch is from the same cross as Kissed guardian.co.uk

Epsom Oaks Series III

Andrew Fletcher is back with his third installment of his 2012 Epsom Oaks series, looking at the pedigree of the main contenders for the Epsom Oaks on Friday.  

The third instalment of my Oaks series sees me analyse the chances of a filly who although being a late arrival to the racecourse is towards the head of the betting market for the next Classic for the fillies. The filly in question is Vow, trained by William Haggas and owned by the same Highclere syndicate that own the second favourite for the Derby, Bonfire.

Her career as a racehorse began in a 10 furlong Maiden Fillies event at Newbury on 20^th April this year. From an outside draw, she took her time in coming across to the other runners and was positioned at the rear of the field. She was still in last position at halfway but under pressure, probably a sign of greenness than anything else. She began to make progress with 3½f left when pushed along and she still had about 5 lengths to makeup at the furlong marker, she continued to stay on however and got up to win by a length. Everlong, who finished second to Vow, went on to finish 4^th beaten two lengths by Good Morning Star in the Cheshire Oaks over 11f. Her odds of 11/2 and the greenness she showed throughout her debut run support the notion she is a backward filly, along with the fact that she did not see a racecourse as a two year old. Therefore improvement was expected in her next outing and as the season progresses.

Following her debut win, she was entered in the Lingfield Oaks Trial over 12f in Listed company, this was run on the all-weather surface due to the poor ground on the turf course. This time she was asked to track the leader and sat in second travelling much better than she had done at Newbury. She was asked to quicken with 3f to go and ran wide round the final turn, she showed signs of greenness when jinking at the sight of the whip, but once she was straightened up she drew clear to win by 3¼ lengths. The field she beat included Colima (2^nd), the winner of a mile maiden at Nottingham and Estrela (3^rd), who has since been beaten in the Height of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood (10f). In which she was beaten 8¼ lengths by Coquet, another potential Oaks filly, the same distance she was beaten by Vow at Lingfield.

It is worth saying that Vow was well fancied that day going off at 11/10 favourite, even so she confirmed she had ability and appeared as though the Oaks would be the next target. She was still showing signs of greenness at Lingfield and perhaps inexperience would be a concern. She did seem to get the 12f distance very well at Lingfield but does the pedigree she possesses confirm the visual impression she gave us?

Vow’s dam is a mare called Frog, who during her own racing career was a winner of several events on ground better than good and at distances from 10-12f. She is a half-sister to Best Grey, 3^rd in the Italian Derby (12f) and a dual winner over hurdles. She is also related to Principe Dos Mares, who was third in a Group 3 over 11f in Brazil. As a broodmare, she has produced several runners, the best of which being Beaten Up, a Group 3 winner over 12f at Newbury in the St Simon Stakes. He is by the four time Group 1 winner Beat Hollow whose victories included the Arlington Million and the Grand Prix de Paris. Another son of Frog is Harris Tweed, a Group 3 winner in the John Porter at Newbury (12f) and a dual Listed winner over 12 and 14f. He is by Hernando, a dual Group 1 winner who has also sired Sulamani, a winner of 6 Group 1s including the Juddmonte International and Gitano Hernando who won the Singapore International Cup over 10f.

The damsire of Vow is Akarad, a winner of the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud over 12f and who was also second in the Prix du Jockey Club. As a sire he has produced Tel Quel, winner of the Champion Stakes at Newmarket over 10f and Double Heart, a Listed winner over a mile in France. As a damsire, apart from those already mentioned, one of his daughters produced Diamond Green, who was by Green Desert. He was a winner of a 7f Group 3 in France, whilst also finishing second in the French Guineas, St James’ Palace and the Prix du Moulin.

Vow’s sire is Motivator, the winner of the Racing Post Trophy (Gr 1 8f), Dante (Gr 2 10f) and Derby (Gr 1 12f), as well as finishing second in the Eclipse and the Irish Champion Stakes (10f). At stud his first crop produced a Group 2 winner in Pollenator, who won the May Hill over 8f at Doncaster. He has yet to sire a winner of a Group 1 but being a son of Montjeu, both quality and stamina are bound to be passed on to his produce.  Motivator’s best progeny to date include Hot Prospect (Kingmambo), a winner over 10f at Haydock who was also second in the Listed Beech House Stud Stakes over 10f at Newbury. As well as Skia, out of a Quest for Fame mare, who won a Group 3 contest at Toulouse over 11f and Lumineux, who was a Listed winner over 10f at Maisons-Laffitte.

To conclude, stamina does not appear to be an issue with this filly, as her dam won over 12f and she is by a Derby winner in Motivator. This is backed up by the staying ability of the rest of the dam’s produce and the stamina influence that Montjeu (grandsire) possesses. She also appeared to show a good turn of foot in both starts, suggesting she may have inherited some of the pace Motivator’s dam Out West had, having been a Listed winner over a mile. There would however have to be doubts about her ability to handle the track at Epsom, given her inexperience and the greenness she was still showing on her second outing. That said she was much better second time and if her progression continues, she might not be far away. There is also the William Haggas factor to consider, whose only two entries in Epsom Classics, Shaamit and Dancing Rain have both won. Vow is well thought of by connections and could run a big race on Friday but I don’t think it would be unfair to say that she will probably be better as time goes on and that this test may come a little quick for her.

Back Vow to win the Epsom Oaks with Ladbrokes at 6/1 using a £50 free bet using code FB50!

Missed Andrew’s first two installments? Read them here:

Epsom Oaks Series I – Was

Epsom Oaks Series II – The Fugue

 Follow Andrew on Twitter @ginge210!

Photo Credits

Photo 1 Vow winning on debut at Newbury www.msn.com

Photo 2 Harris Tweed is a half-brother to Vow www.guardian.co.uk

Photo 3 Vow’s sire Motivator winning the 2005 Derby www.sportinglife.com