Robert Plumbridge

York Ebor Meeting 2012: Group 2 Lonsdale Cup Preview

Robert Plumbridge previews the Lonsdale Cup on the final day of the 2012 Ebor Festival!

The 3.05 Lonsdale Cup at York is centered around whether anything can beat the strong favourite Saddler’s Rock.

The market seems to be edging towards Godolphin runner Cavalryman ridden by Frankie Dettori, who got off the mark here yesterday on Dubai Prince. Cavalryman is currently going through somewhat of a resurgence. He looks to be back near his best and has subsequently clocked up two wins in a row, the latest being a Listed race at Sandown where he beat the field comfortably by 4 1/2 lengths. This trip suits him very well and he should pose as a big danger.
Of the outsiders the two that stand out as having good each-way credentials are course winner Times Up and the Willie Mullins’ trained Simenon. The latter being the strongest of the two having put up a solid effort in defeat last time out at Goodwood.
For the winner though it is extremely hard for me to look anywhere else than Saddler’s Rock. His Goodwood win is comfortably the strongest form in the book and not even a short 6/4 price is enough to put off a cautious each-way punter like myself off.
Going to York is an excellent choice by John Oxx as he will relish the long straight down the Knavesmire. This should only serve to enhance his strong staying capabilities and I fully expect him to do punters a massive favour here as he will be a very popular favourite. He’s had a number of these runners behind him this season and I see no reason to put off anyone steaming in on this one. Certainly my NAP of the day on an otherwise tricky York Ebor card.
Recommended Bet:
York 3.05 Lonsdale Cup Saddler’s Rock WIN @6/4 (Bet with BetVictor)

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York Ebor Meeting 2012: Yorkshire Oaks Preview

Robert Plumbridge takes a look at the Yorkshire Oaks at the Ebor Festival and has a 7/1 selection!

A really interesting contest takes place at 3.40 at York, despite the lack of numbers lining up for the Darley Yorkshire Oaks

The obvious starting point has to be recent Goodwood Nassau winner The Fugue from the John Gosden yard that is dominating the fillies category this season. She will certainly be popular in the market, but is a fraction too short at 7/4 in a very hot race.

Shareta is likely to suit the Knavesmire, the long straight will surely play to her strengths. She was very impressive when 2nd to Danedream in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomph. A repeat of that performance will certainly see her go close.
Shirocco Star had the favourite behind her in the Epsom Oaks, this leads me to question the difference in prices between the two with Shirocco Star trading around the 10/1 mark. Shirocco Star was impressive when second to another John Gosden filly, Great Heavens at The Curragh. That was on soft ground though that day and the quicker surface she will run on today may not suite quite as well as some of the others.

Wild Coco won first time out last time at Goodwood. She could improve for the run, but will have to if she is going to feature in this. She won’t want the ground to dry out anymore however, and I will swerve her at the predicted 7/1 in search of another horse at the same price who I believe could take this.
Aidan O’Brien’s entry of Oaks winner Was is very appealing. She is bound to love the conditions and a mile and a half is just the right distance for her. She has already seen off favourite The Fugue over this distance, therefore in terms of value she is a much more interesting betting prospect than John Gosden’s runner. The likely fast ground should inspire a bold run and I’m prepared to have a large each way bet at 7/1.

Recommended Bet:

Yorkshire Oaks – Was EW 7/1

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York Preview & Tips

Robert Plumbridge brings us his analysis and tips for the card at York on Saturday afternoon, including a confident 12/1 shot for the John Smith’s Cup!

John Smith’s Silver Cup

A competitive field line up for the John Smith’s Silver Cup, a Listed race run over 1m 6 f on the Knavesmire. Mount Athos sets a decent standard with his 2010 course and distance triumph and recent win at Newmarket last time out. Kieron Fallon is an eye-catching booking and there’s plenty in his favour today. He saddles top weight however, and 10 stone could just be too much to stop his improvement even after a great run after a break. Certainly one for the Placepot, but for the winner I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Suraj and Motivado are both capable of winning a race like this. The latter struggled in the heavy ground last month so better things should be expected this the around. There’s also Kiama Bay to consider who is back to a reasonable mark of 94 and is due a big run. He was beaten by Crackentorp last time he visited York and it’s Tim Easterby’s reliable gelding I fancy in this today.
Crackentorp massively impressed here when winning last month and stayed on strongly having hit the front early. He repelled the onslaught from Hong Kong Island to win nicely. The he visited Newcastle for the very competitive Northumberland Plate. In dirt conditions he again stayed on valiantly only to find the excellent Il De Re too strong in the final stages. A run again like that today and I can see him taking this at hopefully an each way price.
Selection: Crackentorp E/W
John Smith’s Cup
The big race on the card at York is the 53rd John Smiths Cup at 3pm. As always a strong renewal with ante-post favourite Mijhaar pricing around 7/2. He’s a worthy market leader with his latest run at Royal Ascot in excellent company. He was 3rd at the Royal meeting and only half a length from the outstanding Gatewood who was too strong for everyone that day in the finish. That was in Listed company so we can expect a solid run today back in Class 2.
Others strong in the market are course and distance conquerer Media Hype who can be forgiven his latest run and seemed to love it round the knavesmire last time. Area Fifty One will also be popular from the Richard Fahey yard who seem to do very well at this course.
For me though, the improving Prince Of Johannes makes real appeal having won the Royal Hunt Cup beating 29 other rivals. That was a great performance by a horse who knows how to win races. He has won 8 of his 23 starts and is rarely out of the mix. He also posted an excellent 2nd last time at York, only beaten by a nose by the Willie Haggis trained Fury. If he can run to the same level as that today he will certainly be very difficult to beat. He’s an outstanding 12/1 bet, so my advice is a large E/W punt to land the cup.
Selection: Prince of Johannes
City Walls Stakes
Last year’s winner Masamah comes here again to defend his crown. He beat Hamish McGonagall that day who came behind in 3rd and will have another crack. The softening of the ground may well be enough to bridge the gap between these two and they both have strong claims.
Prohibit would certainly be one to consider but he has been very frustrating to follow and is probably best watched in this. He was beaten here in the Nunthorpe by Hamish McGonagall but has struggled with his form so cannot be selected with any great confidence. The younger horses  have strong claims with Stepper Point and Ponty Acclaim running very well recently including the former coming 2nd in a Group 2 contest in France.
For the winner I’m going with girl power team of Hayley Turner and her mount filly Caledonian Lady. She has been progressing well this year and most recently beat Confessional in a Group 3 at Sandown. That form translates very well here and at 10/1 she can be backed E/W with relative confidence.
Selection: Caledonian Lady E/W

Sandown Best Bets

Robert Plumbridge has studied the form for the two listed races at Sandown on Friday afternoon!

Sandown 2.50 Mobile Betting At coral.co.uk Dragon Stakes (Listed) 
The field has been decimated for the Listed Dragon Stakes today at Sandown. Only 6 runners will take their chance in the contest run just over 5 furlongs. This leaves us in the undesirable position of going all in on a hot 4/7 favourite or chancing another in the market at an each-way price, despite only having 2 places to fill.
On this occasion I am edging towards the latter as this is not a race to be wagering heavily in. Sure, the favourite Morawij looks a solid proposition with an impressive fourth in  the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot under his belt. He looks quite a few steps ahead of his rivals here  and merits the short price the bookies are offering. Even in this small race however, he is draw in 5, which is not exactly ideal round here and that is enough to put me off wading in.
The tentative each-way selection here is worthy second favourite Lasilia who was only beaten by 4 lengths at the Royal meeting in the Queen Mary when finishing 6th. There were some decent horses behind her on that occasion and further improvement from that could see her go close. The 5/1 price appeals as a (dare I say it) bet to nothing and that will be my play in a race that leaves little options for the everyday punter.

Recommended Bet:
2.50 Sandown Lasilia 5/1 EW 
Sandown 4.00 Ambant Gala Stakes (Listed)
Luca Cumani has found some decent form recently and he holds a strong hand in the Ambant Gala Stakes this afternoon with favourite Afsare. He ran a very creditable second in a Group 1 contest in Italy last time out, fully deserving 2/1 favouritism. Kieron Fallon is an eye-catching booking for Cumani and the market will guide just how strong a prospect he is come race time. The outstanding negative about Afsare however, is the fact that he hasn’t won a race since 2010 despite some decent efforts. His last win did come in Listed company at Ascot.
I’m not overwhelmed by the favourites chances and it is debatable just how good the Italian Group 1 company is. Frankie Dettori looks to have the pick of the Godolphin runners with the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Songcraft. He has been running in Dubai in his last 4 outings winning two handicaps before finding life difficult in Group company in his latest 2 runs. Back at this level he may be up to the job but the 7/2 is a little on the short side, particularly with the suspected rain softening the ground a little.
For me the horse to take the spoils is Sir Michael Stoute’s Tazahum who has been running creditably recently in much better company. He ran smartly on his return at Newmarket in a Group 3 contest and should come on plenty for that run. This colt has also won over course and distance  so will have no problem in that regard. The odds of 6/1 look fair enough and I will take him to do the job and surprise this well-rated favourite.
Recommended Bet:
4.00 Sandown Tazahum 6/1 EW
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Royal Ascot 2012: Waffle Looks Tasty in Wokingham

Robert Plumbridge has a strong 16/1 EW fancy for the Wokingham Stakes on Day Five of the 2012 Royal Ascot meeting!

It’s safe to say the bookies have been well on top this week and the main reason for this has to be the ultra-difficult sprint handicaps with 30+ runners which are proving a nightmare to solve. On the last day of the Royal meeting there’s no change to proceedings with punters being asked to solve the Wokingham Stakes, set to contest at least 25 horses over six furlongs on soft ground- so here goes.

You’re always going to need a slice of luck picking a winner in these types of races. No matter how much form study you do there always seems to be another one who runs well above past form and springs a surprise. All you can do is pick a horse that has the tools to do the job. Therefore my selection will be last year’s runner up, the very likeable, Waffle. He was runner up to the impressive Deacon Blues in this last year who has gone on to win group races before an injury setback. That was on soft ground also so you know he will handle the surface and he’s only alb higher than he was in this last year. He’s drawn well in the high numbers where the likely pace will come from which will suit. It is hard to make a case for anything drawn in the single figures. He may not be in striking form but he has been running creditably enough to suggest, given the right conditions, he could run a big race. The price of 18/1 (12/1 when 2nd last year) looks on the big side so he’s a confident each-way prospect who should go well.
Others to note are High Standing with the eye-catching booking of Ryan Moore. He was 15th in this last year but has been dropped 8 lbs and has won over course and distance. There’s obvious interest in Lightning Cloud who is potentially well handicapped. Kevin Ryan has decided to take his chance in this rather then the Buckingham Palace, and there’s plenty of confidence about him though I’d think twice about backing him at a single-figure price given his draw in stall 4. There’s always going to be plenty of cases to be made but for the selection, I return to Waffle.
Recommended Bet:
Royal Ascot 2012 Wokingham Stakes – Waffle 18/1 EW (Bet with Coral )

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Royal Ascot 2012: Winner To Prove Elusive in the Coronation

Aiden O’Brien will only saddle one runner for the feature race on Friday, after withdrawing Maybe due to a slight knock on Wednesday, writes Robert Plumbridge. This leaves him with only the 1,000 Guinees winner Homecoming Queen who heads the market at 7/2. She is a worthy favourite having seen off a few of these in the English 1,000- winning by an astonishing 9 lengths that day. She then went on to disappoint in the Irish 1,000, running a huge 19 pounds below her effort in the English version. It is likely that the ground was a little quick that day and the likely good to soft tomorrow will be much more to her liking. She’s a worthy favourite, but at 7/2 I would need more assurance that the Guinees win wasn’t a flash in the pan performance.

Mick Channon holds a strong hand in this, with hat-trick seeking Laugh Out Loud and Irish 1,000 Guinees winner Samitar. Samitar took that group one event well at the Curragh and the form has been franked with second-placed Ishvana winning the Jersey Stakes here earlier in the week for Aiden O’Brien. She will relish the trip and has form on good to soft ground- certainly one to be considering.

Laugh Out Loud ran an average race in the English 1,000 Guinees, but has got back to form in her two outings since. She went from that to win a listed race at York before coming out on top in a group two event in France. The York form hasn’t exactly worked out this week with Electrelene (2nd) and Hello Glory (3rd) both running poorly here this week. I’d want a double figure price to be backing her in this group one event rather than the best priced 5/1 available at the moment.
For my money, Elusive Kate is the interesting runner in this race. It is unlikely that she would be anywhere near the current price of 8/1 if she hadn’t been off the track for 231 days. That is the chance you’re taking with John Gosdon’s filly- and it’s a chance worth taking in my opinion. She has already notched up a group one at Longchamp over a mile. She also acts on the surface having won on good to soft previously. The break is the only real concern for her and she can expose the potentially weak form of the market favourites. At 8/1 I’m expecting a big run for Gosden who has been doing well with his fillies this season.
Recommended Bet:
Royal Ascot 2012 Coronation Cup – Elusive Kate 8/1 EW (Bet with SkyBet)

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Newmarket Preview & Tips

Robert Plumbridge brings us his analysis and tips for two races on the Newmarket card on Friday afternoon!

Newmarket 3.55 Lloyds TSB Cardnet Handicap

The Cardnet Handicap features plenty of runners who are struggling for form at the moment. Only two of the runners recorded a top three finish in their last race- a tricky puzzle for any punter.

Firstly let’s concentrate on the two with the decent form in their last outing. Escape To Glory won at Folkestone last time out dropped down from class 2 after finding it too tough in the previous couple of outings. This step up to class 3 handicapping might represent a much easier proposition than that company and William Buick might be able to reel in a few of the leaders on the run in.

The other horse with form is the smartly bred My Son Max from the small P J O’Goran yard. A winner over this distance last time at Kempton. Well worth a try in this company but looks exposed to a few of these and at 13/2 makes little appeal.

Illustrious Prince and Theladyinquestion are two who could run well having previously recorded distance wins, however they have lacked any kind of form for a long time so it would be a shot in the dark backing them.

Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking for Ed Vaughan’s Redvers who was fifth in similar company last time with an encouraging run at Haydock. There’s every chance he is still improving and this looks to be is optimum trip. The booking of Moore could bring out this improvement and I’m happy to take my chances at the enticing 15/2 price, in what looks a very open race.

Selection: Redvers 15/2 EW (Bet with Bet365)

Newmarket 4.30 Lloyds TSB For Journey Handicap

With all the attention surrounding Godolphin and Frankie Dettori this week we get to see all three of the operations stable jockey battle it out in this tough three-year-old race- only two will be in the royal blue, however. Michael Barzelona  saddles top-weighted Samba Star who will no doubt be on many punters shortlist for this 1 mile 2 furlong contest for Al Zarooni. A well-beaten favourite at this track a month ago when seeking a hat-trick win having won at Sandown and Yarmouth over this distance previously.

Dettori has the slightly favourable of the Godolphin entrants coming back from a break. He broke his maiden tag last season over this trip and, if fit, will be thereabouts despite the rise in class. He is 10lb better off than his stable companion and certainly the better prospect of the two.

Silvestre De Sousa will not be in his stable silks, but instead has a ride for his old boss Mark Johnston who saddles Fennell Bay. He ran a good race recently at Epsom in decent company and is in with a shout back at a course he likes having won here in May.

Jungle Beat is the one that catches my eye. He was pleasing here in April coming fifth in a very good race and looked like he needed the extra furlong having stayed on well. John Gosdon has his stable in great form at the minute and William Buick is in the form of his life. 4/1 is a big enough price to take a gamble on him beating the favourite  Thomas Chippendale (9/4) and that will be the play in this one

Selection: Jungle Beat 4/1 WIN (Bet with Bet365)

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Diamond Jubilee Handicap Preview

Robert Plumbridge has made a successful start with his analysis and tips at the Horse Racing Tavern, and he’s back with a selection in the Diamond Jubilee Handicap at Epsom!

Andrew Balding got off to a good start at Epsom yesterday with Highland Knight and Side Glance doing the business yesterday. He trains favourite Open Water in the Diamond Jubilee Handicap, which kicks-off proceedings on Derby Day. This colt has useful form coming into this with a good second at Newmarket to unbeaten three-year-old Main Sequence.  He looks like a consistent sort and should be up there as one of the main players.

Joining Open Water as co-favourite is Grandeur who goes up alb for his recent success at Goodwood over a similar distance. He won that with relative ease on the day and a bold bid is expected. This may come a little quick for him though and I’d prefer something at an each-way price for a race like this, which has limited form to go on.

I’m drawn to the bottom weight Blades Lad from the Richard Fahey stable who has 3lb claimer Ryan Powell on board. This is the right trip on ground which will suit having placed on a similar surface at Beverley in September. The tricky nature of Epsom could well find a few of these young horses out, which shouldn’t be a problem for a horse who has triumphed at Beverley. This is a step up in class for this gelding but with the low weight and ideal conditions this one could well run into the placings at a nice 40/1 price.

A very competitive heat where other dangers could come from Henry Cecil’s Wrotham Heath down in trip, out-and-out stayer Star Date and Position, back from a break, for St Mark Prescott. For the selection though I return to Blades Lad, who is worth taking a chance with in a tricky contest.

Recommended Bet:

Epsom 1.35 Blades Lad 40/1 EW (Bet with SportingBet)

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Epsom Diomed Stakes Preview

Robert Plumbridge is back at the Horse Racing Tavern with a selection in the Diomed Stakes on Oaks day at Epsom on Friday!
 Sir Mark’s Worth a few quid
As I’ve said many times, the golden principle of  betting is finding the value. That is not to say you always have to find 10/1 outsiders- it’s certainly not the case here. For my money the 6/5 favourite in the Diomed Stakes on Friday represents the best value in the race. Worthadd is the clear pick on both the ratings and form over any of these and rightly goes off a shade of odds against. He bids to make it two from two under the guidance of Sir Mark Prescott having won a Group 3 in Baden-Baden 15 days ago. Following that success he has incurred a penalty and is forced to give weight to all-but-one of his rivals. This shouldn’t be a problem with most of these out of form in recent outings, he’s also miles ahead on official ratings and I expect his class to tell. The only slight concern might be the trip having done most of his winning on shorter trips. The fast ground should help with this though, making it an easy 9 furlongs and I don’t think this will be a problem. Sir Mark’s horses are running to form at the moment and if this is the case with Worthadd, I expect to see him win this fairly comfortably.
He only has a handful to beat with just six runners lining up for the Group 3 contest. Ed Vaughan enters his course and distance winner Dance and Dance for another crack in group company. He has yet to run to the form which saw him win at Epsom last year, however a couple of mediocre efforts haven’t put off connections running him in this.
Of the others, Marcret for the Marco Botti yard has the pick of the recent form. He won a Group 3 contest at Chester last time out and has similar credentials to today’s favourite having done most of his winning over in Italy before racing in the UK. He also incurs a penalty for his Group 3 win and saddles the same weight as Worthadd.  At 8/1, he’s definitely got each-way credentials. For the winner, however, I return to Worthadd who should see these rivals off if running his race.
Selection: Worthadd WIN 6/5 (Bet with BetVictor)

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Goodwood 32RED.COM Handicap

There is yet more action on this sunny Saturday, this time from the Sussex Downs – it’s Goodwood. Robert Plumbridge likes the look of a decent each-way bet in the 32RED.COM Handicap at 3.20.

Alan King’s leading juvenile hurdler Grumeti was able to take full advantage of his flat mark last time out at when scoring at Ascot. He’s an intriguing favourite in this contest and could take all the beating. He won’t want it too dry I wouldn’t have thought, so the continued drying of the ground may be a slight concern. That’s enough to put me off him at the current odds of 7/4, especially with some very talented flat specialists lining up against him.

Ithoughitwasover has been on a sharp upward curve of improvement as he looks for a hat-trick after 2 wins on the bounce over this distance. He rightly shoulders top weight which could halt his march to three in a row. He is going from strength to strength at the moment however, so I’d expect him to be in the frame.

Looking at the handicap, the outstanding candidate has to be Life And Soul from the small Amanda Perrett yard. This gelding will only shoulder 8-8 compared to the 9-7 of Ithoughtitwasover which could make all the difference in a long finish at Goodwood. This will definitely bring him into the race and the drying ground should be no problem at all. Certainly the value pick at 15/2 as he’s well handicapped, consistent and has the in-form Hayley Turner on board. Life And Soul should be a sound each way alternative to the top two.

Selection: Life And Soul EW @ 15/2 with Sportingbet

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